The Lost Decade 2000-2009
Every time someone mentions the "lost decade," the same warning follows: "Imagine retiring in 2000. Your portfolio would have been destroyed." So I decided to test it. I built an Excel model using Canadian, US and international equities, assumed a $1M portfolio, a 4% withdrawal rate adjusted for inflation, and looked at every retirement date from 2000 to 2009. The results were...not at all what the "lost decade" crowd (feels like a band name) would have you believe. The famous worst date to retire (2000), exist. But he's more like a lab rat in a research lab closed test tube. Pushing the analysis against the accumulation reality 5 years prior to that 2000 retiree makes him overly optimistic at best. Research link (a small excel file contain past historical results and few formulas) A guide to retire in the 2000's The stats : Canadian Equity market made a reasonable 6% annualized return for the decade 2000-2010. So for us not lost. If we are ...